As the anticipation for the 2024 Kentucky Derby builds, seasoned bettors and newcomers to the thrilling world of horse racing are sharpening their strategies, aiming to pick the winner from a field of the fastest and most promising three-year-old thoroughbreds.
Suppose you’re planning to bet on the 2024 Kentucky Derby. In that case, we have created a guide to help you develop your strategy and balance your bet, considering the favorite contenders and the longshot horses.
Let’s explore how to assess the contenders, from the underdogs with the potential to surprise to the heavily favored elites, ensuring you’re well-equipped to make informed bets on race day.
Longshots Worth Watching
Amid the sea of favorites and well-bred contenders lies a group of dark horses, those long shots that, on paper, may not seem like the likeliest victors but have the potential to upset the field and deliver stunning triumphs.
These underdogs, often overlooked in the face of their more illustrious competitors, embody the spirit of unpredictability and excitement that is the essence of horse racing. Knowing the longshot contenders will help you improve your 2024 Kentucky Derby betting strategy, which could help you make better betting decisions.
Below, we’ll review long-shot horses worth watching in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, exploring their journeys, capabilities, and why they might have what it takes to cross the finish line first against all odds.
Track Phantom
Aside from the fact that Steve Asmussen trains Track Phantom, he has also shown amazing skills on the racetrack in previous races, like the Risen Star and Lecomte race.
Seven years after their horse Lookin At Lee secured second place in the Kentucky Derby, L and N Racing are optimistic that Track Phantom will surpass that achievement and clinch first place for them.
Track Phantom hails from the impressive lineage of Quality Road, a renowned stallion known for producing top racehorses, including Preakness (G1) champion National Treasure.
With this pedigree, Track Phantom possesses a promising chance at clinching victory in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Fierceness
Another possible contender for the 2024 Kentucky Derby that is worth watching out for is Fierceness. Trained by multi-award winner Todd Pletcher, Fierceness earned 36 derby qualifying points on his journey through the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
The minimally competed progeny of City of Light, bred by Repole Stable, last competed when he concluded his 2023 season with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) on November 3. In what was only his third time racing, Fierceness overwhelmed his competition, winning by 6 1/4 lengths, and was subsequently recognized with Eclipse Award accolades.
Identifying the Favorites
Identifying the favorites in the run for the roses is an intricate dance of analyzing pedigrees, track performances, and even the impact of the unpredictable Kentucky weather.
It would be helpful to look closer at the top contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby, breaking down their paths to Churchill Downs and assessing their chances of etching their names into the annals of horse racing history.
That said, we will briefly introduce the 2024 Kentucky Derby’s top 3 favorites to help you decide who to bet on on race day.
Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone is the current heavy favorite of the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Sierra Leone’s triumph in the Risen Star was notably remarkable, starting from a significantly trailing position and moving wide across the track to secure the victory. This standout performance led to most sportsbooks positioning Sierra Leone as a favorite at odds of +600.
Hailing from Gun Runner’s third crop, Sierra Leone shares lineage with Candy Ride. Gun Runner, her sire, saw a consistent improvement in his performance, ultimately being named Horse of the Year when he was four years old.
In an interesting tactical move, Sierra Leone sported blinkers for her first outing in the Risen Star, a decision made by her trainer, Chad Brown. This adjustment saw her racing nearer to the lead.
Dornoch
Fountain of Youth winner Dornoch is the second favorite to win the Kentucky Derby this year. Dornoch has derby odds of +900 and 60 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
In the $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2, Dornoch capitalized on the withdrawal of several key competitors, asserting his dominance in a reduced field of five horses.
Through winning, Dornoch demonstrated his exceptional racing lineage. He hails from Good Magic’s second crop, notable for winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and securing second place in the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
Timberlake
The third horse to watch out for is Timberlake. With 125 points, he currently holds the first spot on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.
Timberlake came from St. Elias Stables in Kentucky and was acquired for $350,000 at the Keeneland September sale, purchased through the Gainesway offering. The horse competes under the partnership of Siena Farm and WinStar Farm, entities that have both previously experienced victory in the Derby.
The sire of Timberlake, Into Mischief, has held the title of North America’s top sire for five consecutive years. Primarily recognized for producing fast offspring, Into Mischief has fathered two Kentucky Derby victors, Authentic and Mandaloun.
Building a Balanced Strategy
Crafting a balanced betting strategy is crucial for maximizing your chances of success and enjoying the event to its fullest.
Firstly, get to know the horses. Each contender in the Derby has unique strengths and weaknesses, and their performances leading up to the event can provide valuable insights. Pay close attention to their recent races, the conditions in which they performed best, and any changes in their training regime.
Next, remember that the odds can tell you who the favorites are and point toward potentially undervalued horses that might perform surprisingly well.
While placing your bets on the favorites is tempting, sometimes the real value lies in the underdogs. Look for horses with improving form or those with an edge due to the weather or track conditions on the day.
Conclusion
The Kentucky Derby’s allure extends beyond the race’s spectacle. It’s a monumental event for bettors seeking to hit it big. While betting on the Derby involves a degree of uncertainty and risk, employing a balanced strategy incorporating a mix of long shots and favorites can enhance your chances of success.
